本篇报告强调了海上船舶保险机遇来自航运活动的持续增多以及船舶价值的不断提升，全球海上船舶保险的保费规模正在持续增长，2023年增长了7.6%，达到了92亿美元；挑战来自地缘政治影响、环境因素、及“黑船队”等因素影响。
在柏林举行的国际海上保险联盟（IUMI）第150届年会上，美国保赔协会欧洲分部总经理，美国Hellenic Hull公司CEO，兼IUMI海上船舶委员会主席Ilias Tsakiris主持了海上船舶研讨会：
“我们庆祝这一发展节点，不仅是提醒我们铭记自己所继承的传统，也是在提醒我们要肩负起迈向未来的责任。海上保险行业一直以来都是因势利导的发展，这一特征在现如今更为突出，我们应当灵活应对周遭变幻不休的世界。”
他强调，全球海上船舶保险的保费规模正在持续增长，2023年增长了7.6%，达到了92亿美元。他解释称，这一增长源于航运活动的持续增多以及船舶价值的不断提升。
“船东们正在加大对他们的船队的投资，添置技术更先进的船舶，以满足全球贸易的需求。受此趋势影响，海上船舶保险人扩大了对这些高价值资产的承保范畴。”
然而，他警告称，随着新的承保能力涌入这一市场，而现有的保险人同时寻求快速增长，更多潜在的挑战可能会浮出水面。
Tsakiris也谈到了索赔方面的变化，他指出，与往年相比，2023年的索赔频率和索赔金额都有所攀升，但总体规模仍维持在疫情前的水平。“进入2024年，这一情况正趋于稳定”，他补充说。
他强调说，后疫情时代的环境给索赔局势带来了新的态势，但保险行业也在顺势调整。
“我们看到了变化，但行业应对有道。我们将持续关注索赔局势的波动，目前来看，发展前景平稳。”
贸易路线中断
Tsakiris提出的重点问题之一是“地缘政治紧张局势对全球贸易路线的影响”，这一问题在中东地区尤为突出。他提及了在当下的红海危机中，胡赛武装的活动导致贸易线路大受阻碍。
“许多船东选择避开苏伊士运河，转而绕远路途径非洲航行，以保护他们的船只和船员。”Tsakiris说到。
他解释说，这样的变化，是有代价的。
“选择这些更长的航线，导致船舶必须驶入不熟悉的水域，行经更落后的港口，致使受损和延误的风险加大。由于这些航线上缺乏救援力量和修理设施，再轻微的事故也有演变成巨额索赔的可能”。
除了这些与运营有关的风险，Tsakiris先生还谈及，改道航行也会对环境造成影响。他指出，随着航程的增长，燃料消耗量和碳排放量也会增加。
“虽然CII评级看似有所改观，但船舶在行径更长的航线时会消耗更多的燃料，进而对行业的碳足迹产生冲击。目前我们在遵循国际目标，朝着减少碳排放的方向努力，这一问题显得尤为突出。我们需要找到既能满足监管要求，又能真正降低全球航运产生的碳排放（造成的影响）的解决方案”。
Ilias Tsakiris 还探讨了地缘政治紧张局势给风险格局带来的变化。
“在面对和高风险地区有关联的船舶时，保险人正表现的越来越谨慎。”他说：“（保险人）在对船舶进行风险评估时，对其与高风险地区的关联性越发谨慎”，他说，“船只在高风险地区，尤其是红海周围地区的航行记录，在风险评估中占据了重要地位。”
他解释说，制裁和地缘政治压力使得为与美国、英国和以色列等国有联系的船只的投保过程变得更加复杂。“风险选择变得更具倾向性，保险公司会更加严格的审查与船舶相关的实际风险和政治风险"。
展望未来
展望未来时，他强调了海上保险行业为支持航运业可持续发展所付出的不懈努力。
“推动双燃料船舶的使用以及对替代燃料的探索正在改变全球船队的构成。新船交付势头强劲，但与此同时部分船队又正在面临老龄化问题，这也带来了一系列挑战。”
一个主要的问题是 “黑船队”——即船只的所有权不明朗、船只分类可疑的船队——正在日益增多。
“这些俗称的‘黑船队’给海运保险人带来了巨大的风险。这些船只通常由可疑的实体经营，缺乏透明度，使得在发生事故或污染时难以定责。这一问题正受到海运保险人的高度关注。”
尽管海上保险行业面临着诸多挑战，Tsakiris先生再次重申了IUMI对促进承保能力的承诺。
“当下，教育和专业知识比以往更为重要。”他说到：“通过开展活动，比如我们即将宣布的IUMI船舶保险大师课程，我们将保证我们的专家掌握在这个复杂的时代引航前行的能力。”
最后，他强调，虽然未来存在着许多变数，但是海上险行业总能凭借其强大的适应力顺势而为。
“150年来，我们不断发展壮大。面对未来，我们必须继续创新、教育、维护海运保险行业，使其迈向下一个150年，走向更远的将来。”
原文
Positivity and uncertainty on the cards for ocean hull underwriters, reports IUMI
Chairing the Ocean Hull Workshop at today’s International Union of Marine Insurance (IUMI) 150th annual conference in Berlin (Germany), Ilias Tsakiris, General Manager of American Club Europe, CEO of Hellenic Hull, and Chair of IUMI’s Ocean Hull Committee opened by saying:
"As we celebrate this milestone, we are reminded of the legacy we’ve inherited but also of our responsibility to prepare for the future. The marine insurance sector has a long history of adaptability, and now, more than ever, we must remain nimble as the world around us changes.”
He emphasized the continuing growth of global ocean hull premiums, which rose by 7.6% in 2023, reaching USD 9.2 billion. He explained that this growth was due to increased shipping activity and the rising value of vessels.
"Shipowners are investing in growing their fleets with more technologically advanced vessels to meet the demands of global trade and consequently hull underwriters have expanded their covers for these higher-value assets."
However, he warned of potential challenges on the horizon from new capacity entering the market, particularly through existing insurers seeking rapid growth.
Tsakiris also touched on the changes in claims activity noting that 2023 saw an increase in claims frequency and costs compared to recent years, though they remained at pre-pandemic levels. “As we move into 2024, the situation appears to be stabilising”, he noted.
He highlighted that the post-pandemic environment had introduced new dynamics to the claims landscape, but the industry was adjusting accordingly.
“We’re seeing shifts but the industry is responding well. The fluctuation in claims is something we’ll continue to track but the outlook is more balanced for now.”
Trade Route Disruptions
One of the significant issues Tsakiris raised was the impact of geopolitical tensions on global trade routes, particularly in the Middle East. He pointed to the ongoing Red Sea crisis, where the activities of the Houthi rebels had led to considerable disruption.
"Many shipowners are avoiding the Suez Canal, choosing longer routes around Africa to safeguard their vessels and crews," Tsakiris said.
This shift, he explained, was not without consequences.
“These longer voyages expose vessels to unfamiliar waters and less developed ports, which heightens the risk of damage and delays. The lack of salvage and repair facilities on these alternative routes means that even minor incidents can escalate into significant claims.”
In addition to the operational risks, Mr. Tsakiris addressed the environmental toll of these rerouted voyages. With longer distances come increased fuel consumption and higher emissions, he noted.
“Whilst, CII rating may seem improved, the ships are burning more fuel as they take these longer routes which directly impacts the industry’s carbon footprint. This is a serious concern as we work towards reducing emissions in line with international targets. We need to find solutions that not only meet regulatory requirements but also genuinely reduce the carbon impact of global shipping.”
Ilias Tsakiris also explored the changing risk landscape as a result of geopolitical tensions.
“Underwriters are increasingly cautious when it comes to vessels with connections to high-risk regions,” he said. "Past experiences in conflict zones, particularly around the Red Sea, are playing a larger role in risk assessments.”
He explained that sanctions and geopolitical strain had made insuring vessels with ties to countries like the US, UK, and Israel more complex. “Risk selection is becoming more selective. Insurers are closely examining both the physical and political risks involved.”
Future outlook
Looking towards the future, he highlighted the industry’s ongoing efforts to support the transition to more sustainable shipping.
“The push towards dual-fuel vessels and the exploration of alternative fuels is changing the makeup of the global fleet. New vessel deliveries are strong, but we’re also seeing an ageing fleet, which brings its own set of challenges.”
One major concern is the growing “dark fleet”—vessels with unclear ownership and often dubious classification.
“This so-called ‘dark fleet’ presents significant risks for marine insurers. These ships are often operated by questionable entities and their lack of transparency makes it difficult to assess liability in case of accidents or pollution. This is a growing concern for marine insurers.”
Despite the many challenges facing the industry, Mr. Tsakiris reaffirmed IUMI’s commitment to promoting excellence in underwriting.
“Education and expertise are more important now than ever,” he said. “Through initiatives such as the soon-to-be announced IUMI Masterclass in Hull Insurance, we are ensuring that our professionals have the skills they need to navigate these complex times.”
He concluded by acknowledging that while the future holds many uncertainties, the marine insurance industry has always thrived on its ability to adapt.
"For 150 years, we have evolved and grown. As we look to the future, we must continue to innovate, educate, and protect the global maritime industry for the next 150 years and beyond."
Ends
来源：Frad风险管理
翻译：马钧熠 宁清逸
编辑：高于凡
总编：辛思健